Our very own Real Estate Confidence Index (RECI), which measures the perceived confidence in the market by real estate professionals recorded its first drop in confidence since the Index went live in June – reporting 5.83 (out of 10) at the national level for the month of September, down 0.85 percent versus the August reading of 5.88.

Pressuring the RECI this month were the long term outlook variables within the Index, with both the 3-6 month and 12-18 month forward looking readings turning negative versus a month ago.

However, it wasn’t all doom and gloom.  The Current Sentiment variable continued its upward momentum, for the fourth consecutive month, reflecting positive market activity and confidence amongst real estate brokers and agents, during the survey period.  On a seasonally adjusted basis, this variable measured 5.06 in September, up from 4.96 in August and 4.76 in June.

To give you an idea of how the RECI has preformed in the months leading up to this September data here is the charted progress of all the variables we track:  (click for full-size)

To add a more human dimension to this data, we also gather any other thoughts our respondents may have on either their local or state market.  Some of the choice quotes from this months survey are as follows:

“High foreclosure ratio. Homes are selling faster due to the lower prices and interest rates and government-assistance programs.” -California

“More jobs are opening up, which will be a boost in our county.” -Indiana

“There is a continual glut of foreclosures, making it next to impossible to sell houses voluntarily. The buyers who can get (qualified) lack motivation.” -Arizona

If you are interested in reading more on this month’s finding you can check out the featured article over at Inman News.

For the past couple months we’ve sent out surveys to our US and Canadian members asking you to answer a few quick questions about their market conditions and your thoughts on how the market will be in the upcoming months.

Before I go any further, I’d like to send out a big ’Thank You’ to the over 3,000 real estate professionals who have responded to our surveys so far.  Your responses have assisted us in gathering the data we use to calculate the new Real Estate Confidence Index that Point2 just released at Inman Real Estate Connect in San Fransisco today.

What is the Real Estate Confidence Index?

Every month, we ask real estate professionals from all over North America to rate their market.  They rate the current, short-term, medium-term and long-term outlook in their market.  We analyze and calculate this data and the median response across all questions represents the Point2 Real Estate Confidence Index measure for the month.  For further details on how we calculate the Index visit our website.

The data gathered for the Index comes from real estate professionals who have important insight and understanding about where the market is and where it is heading.  With the unique perspective from our members, the findings were quite interesting and we hope that with continued participation from more and more real estate professionals we’ll be able to continue to calculate the Index from an even larger group of opinions.

Take a look at the press release for more information about how the RECI got it’s start.

Review the initial results for the Real Estate Confidence Index on our website.

What can I do with this Index?

Copy and use on your website

Feel free to use the RECI data and Index score graphic (at left) on your own website or in your blog posts.  This Index be used to show your website visitors the market value overall, and in the future you’ll be able to show more targeted results for your specific area.  This type of information allows you to provide additional value to consumers visiting your website.  Get an up-to-date Index score graphic on our website at www.realestateconfidenceindex.com each month.

 How can I share my opinions?

Please fill out the surveys we send each month so you can have a voice and share in shaping the Real Estate Confidence Index. 

Check back on our website at www.RealEstateConfidenceIndex.com often to keep track of new results and to obtain the newest Index score graphic each month.

It just so happens that some of our family has relocated to a small town in rural Manitoba that almost no one (even those who live within an hour’s drive) has heard of.  Oddly enough, this small town of 70 people, is experiencing a boom in its own right.  Just within the past year 2 couples and a family of 4 have moved into this small town.  Adding 8 people to the population is an increase of over 11%.  This is fairly unusual and not likely happening in every other small town in Manitoba or Saskatchewan.  Before this influx of newcomers, the most recent arrival in that small town was probably over 10 years ago.  (Check out the fire hall – it doesn’t look like it gets alot of use!)

As we toured through the neighboring communities I began wondering: Who is selling the real estate in these tiny towns?

I have had the enviable pleasure of living in small town Saskatchewan for two years.  The town I lived in was a bustling metropolis compared to where we visited a few weeks ago, with a population of almost 3,000 compared to 70.  Apparently a town with a population this size is enough to support two real estate offices, plus the odd real estate agent from the larger city nearby who listed a property here or there. 

I would love to know how a real estate agent can survive in the real estate business in small town prairie real estate market?  When the average home price (at the time I lived there) being below $10,000 and a basic commission of somewhere around 6%, you can deduce that the profits aren’t pouring in.  In addition to this, the Town Office is engaged in selling off empty lots to any who want to develop for $10 a pop, provided that a structure is in place within 2 years of purchase.  That’s pretty stiff competition for the real estate agents when things are already priced so low.

We hear a lot lately about the down-market in many areas, but I wonder if any of these small towns have ever had a booming market?  Perhaps real estate agents could glean some useful tips from those who have been in small town real estate for a few years that could help those who are experiencing tough times where they live.  Anyone care to share??